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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto, #2)

The Black Swan

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto, #2)

The Black Swan

4.85 64,464 Ratings
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Editor's Note:
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below. Guest Reviewer: Chris AndersonChris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan." In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

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Length 444 Pages
Language Eng
Imprint Random House
Released April 17, 2007
Identifier (ISBN) 8496935
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a writer and avid reader based in the Pacific Northwest. Before pursuing writing full-time, they spent over a decade working in education. When not working on their next book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb can usually be found hiking with their dog or trying out new coffee shops in their neighborhood.

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Richard Thomas
Richard Thomas January 08, 2024
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Mark White
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"Masterpiece from start to finish. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars."
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"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
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"Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre."
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"Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre."
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"Exceeded all my expectations. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading."
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"Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars."
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Linda Taylor
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"Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem."
Donna Lewis
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"Masterpiece from start to finish. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author."
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"Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre."
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"Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem."
Daniel Nelson
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"I was completely blown away. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem."
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"Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre."
George Jones
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"I was completely blown away. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
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"I find myself somewhat conflicted. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. Suitable if your reading queue is empty."
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"A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author."
Carol Evans
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"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
Barbara Wilson
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"A very strong entry. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. Quite impressive overall."
Ashley Campbell
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"A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A solid 4 stars from me."
Stephanie Brown
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"Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
Sarah Torres
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"Such a rich narrative. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars."
Jennifer Lewis
Jennifer Lewis December 26, 2025
"Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading."
Carol Thomas
Carol Thomas March 28, 2025
"Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers."
Barbara  Parker
Barbara Parker October 21, 2024
"Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
Elizabeth Reyes
Elizabeth Reyes October 15, 2024
"Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author."
Patricia Harris
Patricia Harris July 22, 2024
"Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I am now a lifelong fan of this author."
Michelle Thompson
Michelle Thompson July 06, 2024
"I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers."
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Matthew Harris May 05, 2025
"Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author."
Michelle Allen
Michelle Allen October 02, 2025
"Not entirely to my refined tastes. The tempo was somewhat languid, and I found my mind wandering. Not poor, simply average. A fair 3 stars."
Donna Rodriguez
Donna Rodriguez May 13, 2024
"Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars."
Deborah Thomas
Deborah Thomas August 20, 2024
"Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading."
Jessica Sanchez
Jessica Sanchez November 26, 2024
"A profoundly satisfying read. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem."
Matthew Garcia
Matthew Garcia January 19, 2025
"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem."
Thomas Garcia
Thomas Garcia April 09, 2025
"Excellent, though slightly flawed. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A solid 4 stars from me."
Ryan Gomez
Ryan Gomez February 13, 2024
"Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
Richard Thomas
Richard Thomas May 05, 2025
"Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre."
Joshua Sanchez
Joshua Sanchez March 17, 2024
"Excellent, though slightly flawed. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend."
Susan Carter
Susan Carter July 25, 2024
"Excellent, though slightly flawed. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel."
Michael Thompson
Michael Thompson March 30, 2025
"An acceptable diversion. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. A fair 3 stars."
Stephanie Wilson
Stephanie Wilson December 05, 2024
"Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I am now a lifelong fan of this author."
Stephanie Baker
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"A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A solid 4 stars from me."
Susan Moore
Susan Moore October 31, 2024
"I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers."
Michelle Hill
Michelle Hill June 04, 2024
"Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall."
Donna Brown
Donna Brown April 11, 2025
"Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem."
Ashley Roberts
Ashley Roberts June 07, 2025
"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars."
Ashley Carter
Ashley Carter January 13, 2025
"A highly sophisticated read. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A solid 4 stars from me."
Steven Adams
Steven Adams September 28, 2024
"I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. Quite impressive overall."
Deborah Roberts
Deborah Roberts February 01, 2025
"A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. Worth every moment spent reading."
Nancy Moore
Nancy Moore July 20, 2024
"Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem."
Mary Phillips
Mary Phillips July 06, 2025
"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars."
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