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Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle with a Vector-Markov-Switching Model

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Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle with a Vector-Markov-Switching Model

4.85 17,392 Ratings
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Editor's Note:
In a seminal paper Hamilton(1989) proposed a methodology for analyzing business cycles based on a time series model characterized by discrete changes in regimes. Analysis of the U.S. business cycle showed that this model can make inferences about the state of the economy which are extremely close to the NBER turning points and produce reliable estimates for the growth rates associated with expansions and contractions. According to the estimated equation a typical recession is characterized by a 3 percent drop in the level of GNP. In these type of models the basic task is, having described explicitly the probability law which governs these shifts, to determine when these shifts occur and to estimate the model parameters and the state transition probabilities. The driving force is the probability law which governs shifts from one regime to another. The regime at any given time is presumed to be the outcome of a Markov chain whose realizations are unobserved.

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Length 20 Pages
Imprint Not Avail
Released August 1, 1999
Identifier (ISBN) 16379677
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More By Zenon Kontolemis Kontolemis G


Zenon Kontolemis Kontolemis G
The Mind Behind the Work
Zenon Kontolemis Kontolemis G

Zenon Kontolemis Kontolemis G writes contemporary fiction and has always been fascinated by character-driven stories. They hold a degree in English Literature and previously worked as an editor before transitioning to writing their own books. Zenon Kontolemis Kontolemis G lives with their spouse and a very vocal rescue cat.

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Joshua Green
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Steven Martin
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"Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre."
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Daniel Clark
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"Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. Quite impressive overall."
Richard Baker
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"I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading."
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James Flores
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"A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend."
Sandra Carter
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"Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars."
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Gary Scott
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"It was adequate. The tempo was somewhat languid, and I found my mind wandering. Not poor, simply average. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes."
Joseph Rodriguez
Joseph Rodriguez June 10, 2025
"A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
Matthew Lee
Matthew Lee May 22, 2024
"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars."
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"A decent, if standard, experience. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Suitable if your reading queue is empty."
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"I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers."
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"Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre."
Ashley Turner
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"Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars."
Edward Green
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"A highly sophisticated read. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend."
Matthew Lee
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"A profoundly satisfying read. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading."
Sarah Brown
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"A very strong entry. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. Quite impressive overall."
Carol Evans
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"Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece."
Jacob Moore
Jacob Moore October 29, 2025
"Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. Worth every moment spent reading."
Linda  Parker
Linda Parker May 06, 2025
"Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars."
Linda Lee
Linda Lee August 07, 2025
"An acceptable diversion. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Suitable if your reading queue is empty."
Robert Hill
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"Excellent, though slightly flawed. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers."
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"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading."
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"Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading."
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